When the Real Estate Market Declines, Is It the House or the Land That Loses Value?

When real estate markets soften or prices fall, homeowners, investors, and even real estate professionals often ask:

Is it the house or the land that loses value when the market declines?

This question might sound simple, but the answer involves a complex interplay of economic forces, appraisal methodology, land economics, construction costs, depreciation, and location-specific demand.

Whether you're a homeowner in Ontario, a commercial investor in Vancouver, or a curious real estate professional in Calgary, this guide provides critical insights to help you understand what really happens to property values when the market turns.

1. Understanding Property Value: Land vs. Improvements

1.1 What Is "Land Value"?

Land value refers to the market value of the raw land itself—the location, size, zoning, utility access, view, and desirability. In urban areas, land value is often the primary driver of a property's total value. This is especially true in land-scarce markets where buyers compete for buildable lots.

1.2 What Is "Improvement Value"?

Improvement value, often called building value, refers to the value of the structures on the land. This includes houses, garages, sheds, landscaping, and more. Improvements are subject to wear and tear, depreciation, obsolescence, and shifts in buyer preferences.

2. How Appraisers Allocate Value Between Land and Improvements

Appraisers determine value using three primary approaches:

• Cost Approach: Separates land and building value, calculates the replacement cost of improvements minus depreciation.

• Direct Comparison Approach: Uses comparable sales to estimate total property value, then infers land/improvement ratios.

• Income Approach: Relevant for income-producing properties, assigning value based on net operating income.

In declining markets, these allocations become critical. Market value adjustments help appraisers isolate whether falling prices result from land devaluation, building depreciation, or a combination.

3. When the Market Drops, What Declines? Land or Improvements?

3.1 Short-Term Market Corrections

Short-term market declines—driven by interest rate hikes, buyer uncertainty, or temporary oversupply—typically impact land values more than buildings. The cost to build remains steady or even increases due to inflation, while demand for location fluctuates.

3.2 Long-Term Downturns

Prolonged downturns may affect both land and improvements, particularly in economically distressed regions. Abandoned homes, population decline, and underutilized infrastructure reduce both land desirability and building utility.

4. Why Land Is Usually More Sensitive to Market Forces

Land values react faster because they are based solely on external factors: economic outlook, employment hubs, school districts, and zoning laws. The building’s intrinsic cost remains relatively fixed, driven by materials and labor.

4.1 Scarcity and Demand

Desirable locations with limited land supply hold value longer. However, in suburban and rural regions, oversupply can drastically reduce land values during downturns.

4.2 Land-to-Improvement Ratio

In cities like Toronto, land can represent 80% of total property value. In rural Alberta, it may be just 20%. This ratio determines how much of a price change is attributable to each component.

5. Case Studies: Market Declines and What Actually Dropped

5.1 Calgary (2014–2016): Oil Shock Decline

Oil-dependent economies saw widespread real estate declines. In Calgary, land values dropped significantly, while the cost of construction stayed high. Developers halted projects, and resale land prices fell as demand evaporated.

5.2 Niagara Region (2022–2023): Interest Rate Impacts

The Bank of Canada's aggressive rate hikes led to double-digit value declines. Appraisals from this period often showed the building's replacement cost unchanged, with most downward adjustment attributed to land devaluation.

6. The Myth of the Building "Losing Value"

While buildings naturally depreciate due to age and use, their value doesn’t typically plummet during market downturns. What changes is the buyer's willingness to pay for the location—not the structure.

6.1 Replacement Cost vs. Market Value

If it costs $400,000 to rebuild a home, that cost remains fixed in the short term. But if land value drops from $600,000 to $400,000, total property value falls, even though the home itself hasn’t changed.

7. Exceptions: When the House Declines Faster Than the Land

Exceptions exist, including:

• Functional obsolescence (e.g., outdated layouts)

• Oversupply of similar housing types (e.g., condos)

• Deteriorated or damaged buildings

• Commercial buildings with declining income potential

In these cases, buyers may discount or disregard the improvement value entirely.

8. How Appraisers Adjust for Market Conditions

Appraisers apply "time adjustments" to account for changing market trends. For example, a home sold six months ago may need a downward adjustment today. This is often reflected more heavily in the land portion of the valuation.

They also consider building depreciation using:

• Age-life methods

• Market extraction

• Paired sales analysis

9. Protecting Equity in a Downturn

9.1 Maintain the Property

Deferred maintenance can accelerate building value loss. Keep your property in good

condition to retain market appeal.

9.2 Understand Zoning and Development Trends

Land with redevelopment potential holds value better. Stay informed about municipal plans, rezoning, and intensification strategies.

9.3 Focus on Location Fundamentals

Proximity to transit, jobs, schools, and amenities shields land value better during corrections.

10. Final Verdict: What Really Goes Down in a Market Decline?

In most cases, land value declines first when the real estate market softens. The structure may retain or even increase in replacement value, but the market no longer supports the same price for the land. Understanding this helps property owners, investors, and professionals separate perception from reality and make informed decisions.

Knowledge Is Equity

Whether you're appraising a home, investing in a duplex, or deciding when to sell, knowing what drives real estate value is essential. During downturns, it's often the land—not the building—that takes the hit. Stay informed, evaluate your location, and work with professionals who understand these critical distinctions. In the end, equity isn't just financial. It's built on insight.